■Presentation-(Rudolf S. de Groot)
Use of the Ecosystem Services concept for sustainable landscape planning and design
Abstract:Natural ecosystems and rural landscapes provide a range of services, many of which are of fundamental importance to our health, livelihood, economy and general well-being. Yet, despite national regulations and international commitments, degradation of ecosystems, fragmentation of landscapes and loss of biodiversity continue on a large scale which undermines the functioning and resilience of our landscapes.
In addition to the environmental and social costs, ecosystem and landscape degradation has huge economic costs: a recent publication in estimated the global damage, mitigation and repair costs at between 4 – 20 trillion US$/year (Costanza et al, 2014), ‘consuming’ a large portion of our GDP. I will briefly present the concept of ecosystem services, and how these can be quantified and valued, using among others the findings from two global studies: the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in 2005 (www.maweb.org) and the TEEB-study on “The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity” (www.teebweb.org) in 2010.
Based on this conceptual framework, examples will be provided how the ES-concept can help in practice to analyse trade-offs in land use change in order to achieve more sustainable landscape planning and design.
An important conclusion is that investing in nature conservation and ecosystem restoration “pays”; i.e. it provides more economic, and other, benefits than costs, if we are honest about all the externalities involved.
For more information see: www.es-partnership.org
Induced Land-use Change from rapid urbanization in the Pearl River Delta: Evidence, Impacts and Implications
Abstract:Since the implementation of the opening policy and the economic reform, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) has become the leading economic region in China and even in the world. Over the past 30 years, the PRD experienced an unprecedented land-use change process to accommodate the growing economic activities and population. Now the PRD is one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China, but many social and environmental problems caused by rapid urbanization remain unsolved in this region. These problems are not unique and the PRD’s experiences can be a reference for other developing regions in China. Thus, we would like to provide a review of the PRD’s urban land-use change of the last 30 years and related problems. We first analyze the PRD’s land-use change from the aspects of processes, rates, structures and spatial patterns. Then we discuss the impacts of the rapid land-use change to local environments and ecosystems, which includes resource demands, landscape alteration, and ecological consequences. Finally we summarize the responses made by the governments and agencies to better manage the urban land-use, and also introduce recent development progress of tools for land-use planning in the academic world.
■Presentation-(Guangsheng Zhou)
Study on the Relationship between Biome Distribution and Climate in China
Abstract:Large scale vegetation distribution is largely controlled by climate, and climatic change will result in great changes in vegetation. As a result, the landscape will change, and then result in the change of the human environment and the practice of sustainability. It is important to reveal the relationship between vegetation and climate and to assess possible responses of vegetation distribution to climate change. Biomes are climatically and geographically defined as contiguous areas with similar climatic conditions on the earth, such as communities of plants, animals, soil organisms, and viruses, and are often referred to as ecosystems. Some parts of the earth have more or less the same kind of abiotic and biotic factors spread over a large area, creating a typical ecosystem over that area. Such major ecosystems are termed as biomes. Biomes are defined by factors such as plant structures (such as trees, shrubs, and grasses), leaf types (such as broadleaf and needleleaf), plant spacing (forest, woodland, savanna), and climate. A lot of studies on the relationship between biome distribution and climate have been done, however the accuracy of simulating biome distribution and assessing possible responses of biome distribution to climate change is not satisfactory due to the following reasons: (1) the choice affected climatic factors of biome distribution are empirical and different, (2) the interaction among those affected climatic factors has not been included, and (3) the methods using to determine the boundary of biome distribution are also empirical.
In this report, a set of new relationship between biome distribution and climate was developed in China. The biome distribution in China was given by six key plant attributes related to plant canopy structure including permanence of above-ground live biomass (woody vs. herbaceous), leaf longevity (evergreen vs. deciduous) and leaf structure (broad-leaved vs. needle-leaved), and the plant physiological characteristics including photosynthetic pathway (i.e., C3 vs. C4 grasses), drought resistance and temperature tolerance (e.g., warm evergreen, cool conifer). Firstly, six climatic variables were selected to be used as the distributional constraint of each biome, which included annual solar radiation, absolute minimum temperature, mean temperatures of the warmest month and the coldest month, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation reflecting the effects of heat and water resources on plant growth as well as seasonal change, based on the actual geographic distribution of Chinese biome distribution, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and two balance equations on the earth: energy balance equation and water balance equation. Then, an existence possibility from MaxEnt model was used to reflect the interaction among those choose climatic variables. Finally, a common value of the existence possibility 0.19 was determined for the boundary of biome distribution, according to the existence possibility and climatic resources assurance rate for biomes. The simulated map of China’s biomes was in close agreement with the actual biome map, indicating that this relationship between biome distribution and climate was capable of simulating the geographical distribution of biomes in China. This study provides a basis for future studies on climate-vegetation interactions and for developing regional dynamic vegetation models and regional climate models for China.
■Presentation-(J. Kevin Summers)
Development of a Human Well-Being Index (HWBI) and evaluation of its domains, indicators and metrics
Abstract:An index of human well-being has been developed that is applicable at multiple scales for the United States. Those scales include national, state, county and community. The index has been applied at the first three scales and a selected communities for the period 2000-2010 and it has also been applied to two communities (Washington, DC and Tampa, FL). The index was developed in order to explicitly include domains, indicators and metrics addressing environmental, economic and societal well-being. The conceptual model includes 8 domains (i.e., connection to nature, cultural fulfillment, education, health, leisure time, living standards, safety and security and social cohesion), 24 indicators, and 80 metrics. The metrics primarily come from existing databases. In addition, the index uses indicators and metrics that assess ecosystem (5 indicators), economic (7 indicators) and social services (10 indicators) at these scales. Finally, we have developed forecasting approaches that can relate intended changes in services and well-being domains to likely levels of changes in these services and domains and forecast likely secondary and tertiary unintended consequences of the decision promoting the primary changes. The present challenge is incorporation of the index, ecosystem services, and the forecasting tools into Federal decision-making across US government and into state/county/community decision-making across the US.
Resilience thinking in landscape analysis and planning:An adaptive cycle framework for insight and action
Abstract:Since the publication of the seminal work by Canadian ecologist Crawford S. “Buzz” Holling in 1973, the idea of resilience thinking has expanded remarkably beyond the funding group of ecologists, and been penetrating into a wide array of scholarly fields in social and natural sciences, humanities, engineering, mathematics, and planning. In particular, the concepts of adaptive cycle and panarchy by Gunderson and Holling in 2002, with their capability of systematically elucidating dynamic change, provide an attractive and promising foundation for landscape analysis and planning.
Based upon this general premise, in this presentation, I outline an adaptive cycle framework for landscape change analysis and planning, and demonstrate its potential functionalities through case studies and instantiated experiments documented in the literature. These capabilities include, but are not limited to, (1) deep time and comprehensive profiling of modern landscapes, both historical and “future historical”; (2) hypothesis testing on the causal relationships between landscape change and anthropogenic activities; and (3) scenario based modeling for the development and evaluation of landscape planning and management strategies.
I argue that the framework offers a new dimension for both conceptualization and analysis. Once operational, not only will it help landscape researchers and planers to garner deeper insights into the dynamics, causes, and consequences of landscape change, but it will also enable them to develop strategies for actions that build, or facilitate the building of, socio-ecological resilience in landscape.
■Presentation-(Robert J. Lilieholm)
Alternative Futures Modeling: Understanding the Past… Envisioning the Future
Abstract:Around the world, scientists and policy-makers are increasingly interested in understanding how large landscapes evolve in response to changing social, economic, and biophysical pressures. In this talk, I will draw upon nearly 30 years of experience in alternative futures modeling, describing lessons learned and emerging technologies. Examples will draw upon past research in California, Utah, Maine, Kenya and Nepal. Two overarching themes will be highlighted – (1) the need for interdisciplinary work, and (2) the promise of engaging diverse stakeholders to produce actionable science. As a keystone example of these themes, I will describe the Maine Futures Community Mapper (see www.MaineLandUseFutures.org), and ALPiNE – an emerging network of academics, students, and universities engaged in large landscape conservation in the US and around the world.
Recent changes of farming in terms of landscape under the rapid rise of labor cost in China
Abstract:Agriculture dominates the Chinese landscape and has been a major force to change the landscapes for thousands of years. But for a long time before industrialization, agriculture is considered to be in the state of ‘involution’, which means that hosts a large number of the population and the development of agriculture is stagnated. Thanks to the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, enormous changes has been taking place in both agriculture and rural areas during the past decade, away from ‘involution’. This change is historic, and its impact on rural landscape is also huge.
Most notable change in the landscape is undoubtedly the large acreage of abandoned cultivated land, accompanied by forest expansion in space, known as agricultural land marginalization and Forest Transition. Another type of landscape change is the change of multiple cropping agriculture， i.e., from double-season cultivation into single-season cultivation. In this connection, a change from intercropping to pure cropping is also notable. On the other hand, agglomeration of crop distribution becomes more obvious on a macro-scope view. All these changes are associated with the rapidly rising labor costs in the last decade.
Land use and ecosystem services under global change: policy for sustainability
Abstract:The introduction of climate (e.g. a carbon market) and energy policy may provide significant opportunities for the widespread adoption of new land use and management options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in agricultural landscapes. New land uses may include a range of bioenergy, carbon plantings, biodiverse plantings, and alternative crop and livestock management uses. However, these changes may generate collateral impacts (positive and negative, direct and indirect) for regional development, energy security, food production, land and water resources, biodiversity conservation, and other ecosystem services. There is a real need for the ex-ante evaluation of the impact of alternative policy options under a range of biophysical and economic scenarios on ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. Consideration of the uncertainty underpinning the range of input data and models and the impacts of future scenarios is essential to understand the robustness of decisions and outcomes. This information is required to inform decision-making for the transition to a low carbon economy.
I will present the theoretical context underpinning the connection between policy, land use, and ecosystem services, and its place in the global science-policy interface. I will take the audience on a tour of the evolution of a decade of work on the integrated modeling of land use and ecosystem services in Australia—from catchment, regional, to national scale. I will then finish with some outcomes of land use scenarios from the Land Use Trade-offs (LUTO) model—part of the Australian National Outlook. Global economic and climatic trends are estimated using an integrated assessment model. LUTO itself integrates a wide range of biophysical and economic data and models in a spatio-temporal model of potential land use change in Australia’s intensive agricultural zone out to 2050. LUTO itself is a high resolution partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector. It allocates land use including existing agriculture but also new land uses such as environmental plantings, carbon plantings, woody perennials and cereal crops for bioenergy and biofuels. The implications of policy options and changes in external drivers on land use and the impact on across a range of ecosystem services is assessed including food and fibre production, carbon, water, energy, and biodiversity. We analyse four global scenarios—one low emissions, two medium emissions, and one high emissions pathway. We consider climate change projections from three GCMs. Also, assessed are three biodiversity payment policies, three productivity scenarios. Selected outcomes from these national land use outlooks will be presented, including a deep-dive into the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and biodiversity services. Model outcomes inform policymakers of the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with specific policy directions under global change and other elements of deep uncertainty.
■Presentation-(Matei Georgescu)
Sustainable Cities: Challenges Associated with Urban Expansion
Abstract:The conversion of existing to urban landscapes (i.e., the conversion of natural, or agricultural landscapes, to the built environment [e.g., residential dwellings and commercial infrastructure]) act as a first-order local-to-regional scale anthropogenic climate forcing that is at least as impactful as effects due to emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. The impacts of urbanization on mounting heat stress, degradation of air quality, have considerable implications for energy and water availability (and quality), and necessitate advances in local and strategically deployed measures intended to ameliorate negative consequences on urban climate. This talk will highlight the importance of incorporating scale dependent built environment induced solutions within the broader umbrella of urban sustainability outcomes. The urban and global climate community, and related disciplines, understand the physics of these complex systems and have the capacity to simulate desirable features and goals of such strategies. However, notable and societally meaningful advances in urban sustainability requires substantial integration with other fields, including macrosystems ecology, which has established protocols to study multi-scale drivers for ecological processes in cities. Contemporary (e.g., retrofitting of existing urban environments) and future design of settlements demands such cooperative participation between the urban and global climate community, architects, ecologists, planners, and relevant stakeholders, to support development of locally sensible urban adaptation and mitigation approaches that improve the well-being of current and future urban settlements.
Urban sustainability in China: A multi-scale geospatial and modeling perspective
Abstract:Urban landscape has been expanding at an accelerating rate in China during the past three decades, triggered by high-speed economic development and mass population increase. Year 2011 was a historic moment because the Chinese have transformed themselves from an agrarian species to a mostly urban species with their 691 million urban residents and 51.27% urbanization rate. However, material demands of production and human consumption due to fast expansion of urban landscape altered land use and cover, biodiversity, and hydrosystems locally to regionally, making urban areas in China be stressed with the heavy pressures of environmental problems. How to meet critical challenges and strive for urban sustainability in China is being concerned by the research community.
Urban sustainability can be defined as an adaptive process of facilitating and maintaining a virtual cycle between ecosystem services and human well-being through concerted ecological, economic, and social actions in response to changes within and beyond the urban landscape. Detecting and modeling urban landscape dynamics is the basis to understand and improve the urban sustainability. In this presentation, I will mainly demonstrate my understandings to two following questions on urban landscape detection and modeling in China based upon my relative works in the past: (1) How to accurately detect urban landscape dynamics in China with nightlight light data? (2) How to effectively simulate and predict urban landscape dynamics in China with a cellular automata (CA)-based model? I will also provide some discussions on how to facilitate the urban sustainability in China from the viewpoint of landscape sustainability science.
I emphasize that three research pillars of process, impacts and sustainability are indispensable to understand urban sustainability in China. I believe that integration of explicitly spatial urban model, in-situ observation and multi-scale remote sensing techniques will play an important role to investigate urban sustainability in China. I argue that the following ideas are helpful to facilitate the urban sustainability in China: (1) effective participation of the public and local government; (2) effective design and planning to improve and maintain ecosystem services and human wellbeing for good urban landscapes at different scales; and (3) effective communication with the world to obtain support of global wisdoms and resources.